Sunday, September 7, 2008

Social Dynamics in Travian

Travian is a browser-based MMO. I've mentioned it a few times before. The game is a cross between Risk and SimCity. You construct buildings and improve them, train troops, and go wage war. Players have villages that spawn on the big grid, which ranges from -400 to +400 in both X (east-west) and Y (north-south). There are roughly 20,000 people on each server; right now, there's around 12,000 people that have been active on my server in the past week.

Only one person can win, but that win is really for his alliance. And, since alliances are limited to 60 people, his confederation (which is a group of alliances; there is some in-game support for confeds). After a server runs for about 10 months, an NPC race show up. You (and your alliance) beat them up, get plans for a new building type, then you up that building to level 100 (whereas 20 is the max for most building types).

Out of those 12,000 active players, roughly 120 will be said to win. That's 1%. What are the other 99% doing?

Usually alliances in the game divide up into the quadrants -- to the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest of the origin. That's four confederations, one per quadrant. Those confederations might be two or three multi-wing alliances, so generously about 1,500 people are in the running to win. That still leaves over 10,000 people that are actively playing and not likely to win.

And let me qualify that 'likely to win' bit. Prices in the game are exponential -- a level 2 building is 29% more expensive than level 1, level 3 is 29% more expensive still, and so on. A player with all level 20 buildings is 29% more powerful than one with all level 19 buildings, and nearly thirteen times (1278%) more powerful than one with all level 10 buildings. If you're not up there at the top, you have no chance to compete.

The players in alliances outside of the top 4 have 0% chance to win. I haven't chased down who has won each game; I'm don't even know that it's recorded anywhere useful. But once you drop off the top dozen alliances, power drops considerably. Number 20 is 1/3rd the size of #1, number 40 is half of #20, and the 60th alliance is an order of magnitude smaller than the top dog.

So what do you do? Or, what do I do? If I'm not in one of the top few alliances, then I'm just ... having fun? Not winning, that's for sure. So why play? Why do other people play?

Judging from the forums, the two main reasons people play this game are (1) they're stay-at-home moms, or (2) they got beat up a lot when they were kids.

#1 is somewhat related to my previous post about who has time to play games that require you to log in frequently -- kids, college students, and the unemployed. Stay-at-home parents are kinda like the unemployed. And those are the people that play. Kids (and college students) are still coming to grips with being beaten up a lot; Travian is a great outlet. Someone pisses you off? Destroy their village and everything they've spent months working on! Hah!

It's a war game, though. Some people lose.

It's funny to see how some people respond to being attacked. A good many don't realize the "war" aspect of the game. And it also seems the developers want to hide that part, too. Not a lot of stay-at-home moms like getting their village destroyed by 12-year-old kids. The solution seems to be "don't tell them that happens," then just hope they don't find out. It's not like every mom gets her village 0-popped. When 12-year-olds gets attacked, whether it's a full-on assault or just a small raid, some of them respond with vitriol characteristic of someone that's just learned some new swear-words and has the freedom to act outside of parental control. More mature

What should someone in this game do when they are attacked? I think a better question is: should you be attacking your neighbors?

There are two reasons to attack another play - (1) to steal some of their resources, called "raiding" in the game, and (2) to destroy some of their buildings and/or kill off their troops. In the late-game, when alliances are competing to finish a world wonder, slowing down your competition is as important as building your own wonder faster. Before that, though, the primary reason to send troops at another player is to steal their resources. A corollary here is to prevent other players from stealing resources, so you attack them to kill off their troops and their ability to train troops.

Stealing resources is a plentiful source of resources. You can easily double your hourly production, and (if you focus heavily on troop-building) gain considerably more from raiding than from you produce through your crops. A maxed-out village will produce over 5000 resources an hour, but can support a couple thousand troops -- which themselves can produce 10,000 resources an hour. Some villages can support 5000 troops, and if that type of village is your capital, it can support up to 180,000 troops. Raiding is big business.

But let's look at this at a meta-level. Either you steal resources from someone else, or they use them themselves. If they use their own resources, they can upgrade their own buildings. The game is fairly balanced, such that each upgrade provides roughly the same return. There's a slight negative bias, such that upgrading a low-level resource gives a bigger ROI than a higher-level resources. Hence, "the universe" produces more resources if you let a low-level farm improve himself. Raiding transfers wealth from an efficient producer to an inefficient producer.

But, because of attacks and raids that prevent a player from building anything, a great many people stop playing. Inactive players are a great source of resources -- they aren't using it. And that's a legitimate reason to farm them; a low-level but inactive user is wasting resources. Anything he produces over his warehouse's ability to store it is just thrown away.

So why 0-pop someone? It removes a source of resources from the game.

Thinking about all this suggests, to me, that the strongest way for an alliance to win is to have a bunch of active players building a bunch of villages, raiding inactive players, and suppressing their foes. Raiding active players, if they're not competing with you for resources, seems to be pointless. And if they are competing with you, then allying with them is a better use of resources than throwing away troops on attacking them.

So why not ally with everyone in your quadrant? That seems like the strongest way for your quadrant to win.

And now we get to "your quadrant." Do you really care who wins? Isn't choosing to root on your quadrant just tribalism? "My quadrant is better than your quadrant!" The other 2,999 active players in your quadrant aren't your friends and relatives. They're a bunch of strangers, half of them 12-year-olds (at least in mind).

So let's come back to why to play this game. If you're competent and active, being big enough to get into one of the confederacies-that-has-a-chance-of-winning isn't difficult. If you're not the sort of person that tortures small animals and snaps at anyone that talks to you, you shouldn't have difficulty getting into those alliances. A little bit of diplomacy and a little bit of activity and presto you're in.

So if you've read this far, you, too, have a shot of winning a Travian game. But why play Travian?

Why play any game? Because it's fun, for a chance to socialize, to build up a cool little city, to compete against other players at a game with well-defined rules, for a chance to take out your aggressions on small forest creatures^H^H^H on other players.

But why attack other active players? Isn't that just griefing? I'll explore griefing in a future post.